As the season comes to a close the Jacksonville* (I put parentheses due to the possibility of a relocation… in the future) Jaguars should be truly beginning to focus on the 2021-2022 season. After today’s one sided affair against Tennessee the Jaguars are 1-12 and haven’t won a game since week one. Of course the players will play to win until the last whistle in week 17 but the front office, specifically owner Shad Khan, will need to turn their attention to the future of this franchise. I say “future” because the franchise seems to be coming to a crossroads. This is a team that is on the road to finishing with one win this season and nearly a lock to select their next franchise quarterback. When drafting the future of your franchise you need to plan for what your organization will look like with that individual at the helm. Everything needs to be put into place to best help him succeed in this league. It isn’t enough to prepare for 2021. As a front office your mindset at this juncture should be “how do we set ourselves up for success in 2021 and beyond”. I’m sure there won’t be much push-back when I say we will probably not be seeing the Jaguars in the playoffs next season. Before any changes can be made we must first acknowledge the facts.
The Facts
As stated above the Jaguars are most likely going to be drafting second overall in the upcoming 2021 draft in Cleveland. The team will own a top ten pick for the 9th time this decade. For the second year in a row they will be walking into the draft with two first rounders. The one year they did not draft in the top ten was following their 2017 trip to the AFC Conference Championship. Although that magical trip was just 3 years ago, only 11 players remain on the roster from that team. None of the returning players are one of their six pro bowlers from that season. Needless to say, this is not the same team that took the Super Bowl Champion Patriots to the wire in 2017. However, the pieces left, the front office and the fans have not forgotten the feeling of that run and have a desire to get back to that caliber of play.
Headed into 2021 the Jaguars will have 22 contracts set to expire. Most of those contracts are fairly minor and shouldn’t overly stretch the pockets of Mr. Khan. Many of the players will be re-signed but some will also be let go. This should leave Jacksonville to be in a position to have an abundance of cap space. Spotrac projects them to have the most cap space in the NFL (over 84 million). This should give the Jacksonville front office a lot of freedom to pursue SMART investments into the future of this organization.
The entire Jacksonville coaching staff is on the hot seat and former general manager Dave Caldwell was fired earlier this season. It seems almost inevitable that a lot of the names on the coaching staff and even the front office will be on their way out the door following the conclusion of the season, or even sooner.
The Staff
A multitude of the issues surrounding this organization start with the overall culture. There doesn’t seem to be a winning culture in Jacksonville and the solutions Shad Khan has implemented just haven’t worked out (*cough* Coughlin *cough*). When two of their best players in franchise history want out it doesn’t necessarily scream “great place to play”. This is why their first order of business needs to be cleaning house and starting over. I believe it is time for a hard reset in 2021. Bring in a brand new regime and a franchise quarterback in the same year. The next important step, maybe the most important, is to indulge in patience. Hard resets take time and a quick fix or a band-aid simply won’t correct this issue. The staff being hired needs to have the trust from the fans and those above them to get this turned around and do it their way. Convincing the fans to have patience will be tough, considering they have been patient for quite some time.
Khan should waste no time revamping this front office. Find people with experience winning and a proven track record. It will all start to take off with the hiring of a general manager. Again, this should be someone with experience in a winning culture, who understands what it takes to get to the top AND stay there. Something the Jaguars failed to do following 2017. Three names that come to mind are Glen Cook, Brian Gaine and Joe Horitz. These three may not be the top candidates in the league but I believe they would be the best fit and have the highest impact for the Jaguars and what they need. Cook would be at the top of my list. Someone who has spent the past four years in Cleveland. He was there at their lowest and has been there through their rise to the level they are at now. Truly someone who understands what it takes to turn a team from a bottom feeder to a Super Bowl contender. Brian Gaine was given a raw deal with the Texans and BOB. He has been a part of the Bills recent turnaround and knows the AFC South. Joe Horitz has been with the Ravens for over 20 years. One of the most well run organizations and a man who knows college talent. If a culture change is what the Jaguars need, Hortiz would be a great hire.
As soon as Khan hires a general manager it will be time for the front office to sit and formulate a road map of where they want this organization to go. They will need to formulate an identity and the best possible route at winning the division and competing for a conference title. Once this road map has been made, it will be time to look for a coaching staff that can steer this team into the right direction. Again for this position I have three possible candidates that come to mind. Brain Daboll (Bills OC), Matt Campbell (Iowa State HC), Josh McDaniels (Patriots OC). I thought about either, Don Martindale (Raven’s DC) or Dennis Allen (Saint’s DC) but with the league focusing on a more offensive minded approach I went that route as well. Daboll would be a great hire if the Jaguars were to hire Brian Gaine, the two currently work in Buffalo together. The work he has done with Josh Allen and that offense speaks for itself and would be a huge asset to the new man behind center in Jacksonville. I normally don’t like coaches going from college straight to an NFL head coaching spot. I think the jump is a lot more difficult than many think. However, one of the major reasons behind Campbells success at Iowa State has been the culture he has established there. If he can find a way to establish a similar culture in Jacksonville he could be an incredible hire. Everyone knows what happened the last time McDaniels was given the keys to an NFL team. However, I see that as a humbling experience for him and one he chose to learn from when returning to New England. I see him as a new coach and one who is ready to take on a team again.
The Players
I expect many of the players with expiring contracts to be re-signed. The players I think should for sure be re-signed are; Cam Robinson, D.J. Hayden, Keelan Cole, Kamalei Correa, Tre Herndon and Tyler Shatley. I would lean towards re-signing Abry Jones and James O’Shaughnessy but they aren’t must signs. I believe they should move on from Chris Conley, Tyler Eifert, Dede Westbrook and Chris Thompson. Dawuane Smoot is someone that could also be on his way out.
The team is most likely going to have the most cap space in the NFL but they need to be smart with that cap space. Learn from the mistakes of the Jets (Bell and Mosely). There are some solid free agents in 2021, it will be important for the general manager to stick to the plan for the future and find players who fit that plan. Also, understand that the team is not in win-now mode, they are building something that will take time. The major needs heading into the 2021 season are Quarterback, Offensive line, Tight End and Defensive Line. Quarterback probably won’t and shouldn’t be addressed in free agency. The Jaguars would really benefit from adding an offensive lineman from this free agency class. A guy like Brandon Scherff would be a massive upgrade and truly help a struggling line and young quarterback. A strong effort to sign Taylor Moton should happen as well, if it is possible. Gerald Everett or Jonnu Smith are two tight end options Jacksonville should also go after. I would prefer Everett over Smith and it is hard to see Los Angeles having enough cap space to sign him long-term. Lastly, Justin Simmons should be signed. Simmons and a tight end free the team up to draft their important draft capital on the trenches. This will give them some cheap long-term options at the positions. Again, the Jaguars will need to be patient going into free agency. That money is going to need to go towards extending some of the current pieces on that roster.
Their first draft pick needs to be on a quarterback and I believe it should be Justin Fields, provided Trevor Lawrence goes first overall. If Lawrence is there at #2 then he needs to be the selection. The next few months will be very important for Fields. Some are worried about Fields after his performance against Indiana, if he struggles down the stretch and in the playoffs his stock may very well plummet. However, I don’t believe he will struggle and I’m a believer in his talent. With their second pick I see it imperative to draft Fields the protection he needs. If Samuel Cosmi from Texas or Rashawn Slater from Northwestern are available they should be selected. The rest of the draft should be spent on the trenches on both sides of the field. The draft should be focused on building this Jaguar foundation, the sexy picks can come later but there needs to be a base to build on first.
Overall, the Jacksonville Jaguars have a lot of issues that are hindering the possibility of them returning to the AFC Championship anytime soon. The Jaguars need to clean house and it starts at the top. Once the house is clean, patiently focus on rebuilding this franchise and creating a culture that is conducive to winning. Being patient is a hard thing to ask Jaguar fans to do, but with the right people in charge the patience will most certainly payoff.