Rookie Running backs are a very tantalizing aspect of Fantasy Football. More so in the realm of Dynasty Fantasy Football. Every year discussions begin on who is the running back to own in the rookie class. This more or less relates to the running back and their talent. Now, this is not to say that isn’t important but I also believe that the landing spot plays a huge role in drafting a fantasy running back. So, instead of discussing the running backs and their college production and splitting hairs over them I decided to take a look at teams in need of a running back and ranking them in terms of landing spots. The ratings are based off of running backs that are currently under contract for the 2021 season. As free agents sign, updates will be made.
N.R.N.(No Rookie Necessary)
There are a handful of teams who currently have a running back and won’t be looking to add a replacement. If you are drafting a rookie on this team you are simply drafting a handcuff, if even that.
Carolina
Christian McCaffery…. One of the most talented running backs in the entire league and a fantasy superstar. However, we did see how successful a backup could be when he goes down. Mike Davis is a free agent so there could be handcuff value but you aren’t investing a high pick in one at the moment.
New Orleans
The eventual departure of Drew Brees raises some question marks for sure. But Alvin Kamara is still the man and he is electrifying year in and year out. Latavius Murray is also still there for two more years. Not much value to gain here either.
Minnesota
Dalvin Cook was an absolute beast in 2020. The Vikings used him and used him often. The offense seems to run through him but we have seen that it seems to go through the run game regardless of who is there. With Alexander Mattison still holding it down as one of the top handcuffs to own a rookie would be at the most a third stringer.
Cleveland
Nick Chubb AND Kareem Hunt. We saw what both did all year. Any running back is strictly depth. NEXT.
New York (Giants)
Say what you will about Saquon Barkley, he is an exceptional talent and he is the Giant’s guy. We all saw first hand how useful any Giants running back can be last season. With Wayne Gallman being a free agent there is an opportunity for a rookie to step in and take hold of that handcuff.
Tennessee
Derrick Henry is still Tractorcito and he is the man they are going to continue to feed until his career is over. Darrynton Evans is the current backup. There is a chance that a rookie takes over that spot but nobody is replacing Henry.
Dallas
Similar situation as their rivals up north. Zeke has been an incredible fantasy asset but there is a possibility we are witnessing his decline. 2021 will be a big year for Zeke in Dallas and could open the door for a new face. However, many believe that the next man up is Tony Pollard, just biding time. So, if you are drafting a rookie you are most likely taking a third stringer or future handcuff.
Philadelphia
With a new regime on its way in many players’ roles may change. Miles Sanders, however, has proven to be one of the most talented players on this team. He often delivered the only offensive juice all season. He should be firmly planted in that RB1 role. His handcuff, however, looks to be pretty wide open. What the Eagles do in free agency and the draft could carry some weight in dynasty leagues.
Chicago
I’m not sure if Chicago would’ve been in this situation at this time last year. But, at the conclusion of the 2020 season David Montgomery ended the season on a tear. It will be interesting to see how Chicago utilizes Montgomery and Cohen in 2021 but there doesn’t seem to be much value in a third stringer/possible handcuff.
Los Angeles (Rams)
The Rams invested in Cam Akers in last year’s draft. It may have taken him some time but based on the conclusion of the season it’s clear he has both talent and the trust of the coaching staff. He looks to be locked and loaded as the RB1 for McVay. Even with Malcolm Brown hitting free agency, Deangelo Henderson is still there as the essential backup with some value.
Los Angeles (Chargers)
There is a lot of value in this backfield. But, with Austin Ekeler signing an extension last year they have put their money where their mouth is and he is the guy. They have a handful of backups with value if he goes down. How talented those backups are is up for you to decide. But it is seemingly unlikely that they draft someone who provides much fantasy value.
Las Vegas
Josh Jacobs had a somewhat up and down season. But, many saw just how good he has the potential to be. He is their guy and they want to use him. There could be some value in a handcuff if Jacobs were to get hurt again. However, as fair as starter upside, there isn’t much.
Indianapolis
Jonathan Taylor was the highly regarded running back in last years draft until Clyde Edwards-Helaire went to Kansas City. Jonathan Taylor still ended his season on a MUCH higher note. Headed into 2021 he looks to be a guy many will want. Not to mention Nyheim Hines has carved out a role as the pass-catching back. A rookie here would most likely clog up your roster.
Baltimore
The Ravens seemingly again and again refused to give J.K. Dobbins the keys and were adamant on a continued utilization of Gus Edwards. With Mark Ingram on the outs we can only hope that 2021 is Dobbins season. Depending one what the Ravens do with Gus Edwards this offseason (he is a free agent). Baltimore could be drafting Dobbins’s backup or simply a depth piece behind Edwards. With Dobbins being the 2nd rusher behind Lamar even if he is given a full load, a backup only provides value as a handcuff.
Cincinnati
Had it not been for Zac Taylor hinting at a return every week most people may have forgotten about Joe Mixon. But, he is there and hopefully he is healthy for the 2021 season. He is the guy to own in Cincinnati. Giovani Bernard is still the backup there with Samaje Perine and Trayveon Williams behind him. Any rookie running back is a depth piece that may be fighting for a third string role here.
Minimal Rookie Assistance
There is a much smaller list of teams that will most likely not be utilizing much of a rookie running back next season but for whatever reason could be looking elsewhere.
Kansas City
Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t produce the season that many who drafted him so highly would’ve hoped for. However, he fought through injuries through much of the year and with the Chiefs investing a first round pick in him I don’t think it would be wise to move on quickly. He is a talented running back and should put up much better numbers in 2021.
Green Bay
The Packers will almost definitely lose Aaron Jones in free agency. They drafted A.J. Dillon as his replacement in last year’s draft. Jamaal Williams is also set to hit free agency. Depending on what they do with Williams there could be a rookie fighting with Dillon for the starting spot. Based on how Dillon played in limited snaps his rookie season it is most assuredly his job to lose.
New England
Damien Harris burst onto the scene in the second half of the season for the Patriots. He started off the season hurt which delayed his coming out party. James White is set to be a free agent and the Patriots could be looking for his replacement in the draft. Either way, it would be hard to replace a guy like that and they likely wouldn’t put up the same numbers as White has. Harris will most likely enter 2021 as the RB1 for New England and you can’t expect any rookie to be close to what James White has been.
San Francisco
Raheem Mostert will most likely be the guy headed into 2021. He will be on a contract year and should be playing for quite the pay day. The backup situation is a little murky for the 49ers, however. Both Tevin Coleman and Jerick Mckinnon are set to be free agents. It’s possible that one of them is brought back. Jeff Wilson Jr. just resigned as well adding another piece to the mix. A rookie is just depth for injuries.However, Mostert has proven to be somewhat injury prone and that could lead the way for a rookie to step in and take over. Especially if the 49ers elect to not extend or resign him. This would be more of a long term play.
Washington
Antonio Gibson showed flashes throughout the season. He is most likely headed into the season as the RB1 in Washington. The coaching staff did, at times, hesitate to give him a full load and leaned on J.D. McKissic a decent amount. It is a small one but there is a window for a rookie to carve out a role in 2021. The most likely route is Gibson takes over even more.
Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have elected to roll with Leonard Fournette more than Ronald Jones in the playoffs. Ronald Jones has been used and has had some injuries but he clearly has been behind Fournette for much of the playoffs. Regardless of what they do with Fournette this offseason Ronald Jones will be playing 2021 in a contract year hoping to cash in on a nice pay day after. It would seem to be his starting job to lose but the coaching staff doesn’t seem to love him and a rookie could take over his spot.
Jacksonville
James Robinson absolutely dominated this season as an undrafted free agent. But, that would be the problem with Robinson. He is an undrafted free agent playing under a new regime. The likelihood of anyone taking away his starting role is very small. But with almost no capital invested in him and a new staff, the first sign of struggle could turn to a loss of a job for Robinson. Again, not a likely scenario but if they draft a running back decently high, he could be a nice depth piece.
Detroit
After the demoralizing dropped touchdown, D’Andre Swift was able to put together a pretty solid rookie campaign. It is most likely that he is the starter at the onset of 2021. However, a new coaching staff may not see it that way and may look to go a different route in the draft. Another interesting situation to monitor while understanding he will most likely be the starter in 2021.
Denver
Both Royce Freeman and Melvin Gordon III will be returning in contract years while Phillip Lindsay is a free agent this year. What Denver decides to do this offseason with their three running backs will be very telling. I am not speculating on any resignings or extensions. So, as it stands any rookie running back drafted could be a very valuable asset. However, for redraft it is almost certainly going to be Melvin Gordon’s job in 2021. Any rookie (at this point in time) will be battling for that back-up/handcuff role.
Potential Rookie Star
Atlanta
At 26 Todd Gurley was still able to produce a fantasy relevant season in Atlanta. That could have been due to the fact that he still has some juice or the fact that Atlanta still has one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Either way it was clear that there was still some wear and tear on Gurley. As backups Ito Smith and Brian Hill have been just fine. Nothing special. It remains to be seen if Atlanta’s new coach and General Manager are keen to the idea of bringing Gurley back. If not (or even if they are), they are likely to take a running back in the draft. Again, this is still a very powerful offense in Atlanta and we have seen what new coach Arthur Smith can do with running backs. This would be a very sought after landing spot.
Seattle
Run happy Brian Schottenheimmer is out as Seattle’s offensive play caller. This could make some changes and take away from the value of the running back in Seattle. Not to mention Chris Carson is set to hit free agency this offseason as well. Rashard Penny is still on this roster and could definitely step up but he hasn’t played for a while and by no means is a guarantee to be the starter.
Buffalo
It was clear in the playoffs that the Bills are lacking a true force at the running back position to compliment Josh Allen and that offense. In their three playoff games Josh Allen was the only rusher to top 50 yards. He did it twice. Needless to say the Bills will more than likely be searching for a running back in the draft to make this offense less one dimensional.
Pittsburgh
James Conner is set to be a free agent this offseason and while on the team he was less than stellar. When sidelined with injuries his backups didn’t provide much more. Mike Tomlin is known for wanting to use his running back and use him often. If they don’t have faith in their current roster they may look for a guy to get this running game back on track. If they do, he could be in line for a lot of work and a lot of fantasy points.
Miami
There is no denying that Myles Gaskin was a huge part of the Dolphins coming out party this season. However, Salvon Ahmed also succeeded at running back when given the opportunity. I believe this speaks to the Dolphins running game as a whole. Of course, this will be Gaskins job to lose. With Miami spending only a 7th rounder on him they aren’t tied to him by any means.
Arizona
Kenyan Drake is set to hit free agency this offseason. Many may believe this will be Chase Edmonds role to take. However, when they had the opportunity to make him THE guy they elected to sign Drake. It remains to be seen if Kingsbury and crew have complete faith in Edmonds. This is a solid offense and the starting running back has a lot of value.
New York (Jets)
With one of the most anemic rushing attacks in the NFL the Jets will most certainly be looking for a running back in this year’s draft. Now, with how porous their running game was last year the Jets don’t exactly scream “draft our running back”. But, with Adam Gase gone and an improving offensive line if the Jets opt to take a running back early in the draft it will most likely be their job in week 1. As many in the fantasy community will say, chase the volume.
Houston
David Johnson will be returning to Houston in a contract year. He had a solid year for the Texans but it is clear he has lost a step or two. It is obviously Johnson’s job to lose but as the Texans likely begin their rebuild (with minimal picks) they may look to add a running back.