Wide receivers have become the new premium in fantasy football. Many are turning to the zero-running back strategy to help themselves win leagues. Snagging a stud receiver early is oftentimes a safer option as they are more likely to stay healthy throughout the season. Sadly, for those reading, this is not a pitch in favor for the infamous zero running back strategy. This is a simple, shallow, dive into the current wide receiver landscape and what landing spots you should be most excited about in this upcoming draft. Hopefully this is something that may help add some clarity to your Devonta Smith vs. Ja’Marr Chase debate; post draft. Each team is written strictly based off of how they are as a landing spot, not the likelihood of them actually drafting a receiver.
*Everything said here is based strictly off of who is currently under contract in the 2021 season. Players like Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin are free agents and are viewed as such until they sign.
Door Is Closed
(Not much to see here, most rookies are WR3 on their team or worse)
Atlanta
It will be interesting to see what Arthur Smith and company do with this squad. Matt Ryan is still a solid quarterback and this is a very good offense. Regardless of what happens in Atlanta, no rookie is going to take over the spot of either Julio no Calvin Ridley. Right now, any receiver is a third stringer or worse. The third receiver can have value in Atlanta, they were fourth in the league in pass attempts. Olamide Zaccheus and Russell Gage aren’t world beaters but both put together some solid games and will most likely fill in that role in 2021.
Carolina
We saw Robby Anderson breakout in this offense last season. D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel put together solid seasons as well. This offense has a lot of weapons and should look to be a solid offense in 2021. A rookie receiver almost undoubtedly takes over that number three receiver role. There is value in that position with Joe Brady calling plays and the 11th most pass attempts in the league.
Cincinnati
The Bengals will get Joe Burrow back after a brutal injury in his rookie season. With Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins returning there isn’t a spot for a rookie to take a 1 or 2 spot in this receiver room. Both guys showed good chemistry with Burrow, especially Higgins. A rookie will either replace longtime Bengal A.J. Green or sit on the roster as a depth piece. The Bengals were in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts last season which could change with Burrow returning.
Cleveland
The Brown's success in 2020 was predicated on the run. They passed the ball the fifth fewest out of any team. It is almost a certainty that they will look to do that again in 2021. Odell and Jarvis Landry will both be returning in 2021 which all but closes the door for any rookie to step up and deliver much fantasy value.
Dallas
Dallas will be returning their three headed monster in 2021, there is nearly zero chance a rookie is able to put much of a season together. Gallup is a free agent in 2022 so there is small dynasty value. The more important question is whether or not Dak Prescott is the signal caller in 2021.
Denver
The Broncos have a plethora of talented young wideouts. Between Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and K.J Hamler. Not to mention the quarterback play has been less than stellar. Overall, this isn’t a landing spot you would be too excited about for a rookie receiver.
Kansas City
Regardless of what happened in the Super Bowl this is almost undoubtedly the best offense in the NFL. Sammy Watkins is a free agent which could open the door for a new face in that room. It would most likely be Mecole Hardman but there could most definitely be competition. The only issue with this offense is no matter who is selected Kelce and Hill will garner the most targets. This is mostly a depth piece or a boom/bust guy. But this would be a wonderful offense to be a depth piece in.
Los Angeles (N)
Regardless of the way you feel about Matthew Stafford, at the very minimum he won’t be worse than Goff. However, this team is pretty deep in terms of pass catching options. With Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson there will mainly only be a competition for a third string receiver role. That role could be valuable in deeper leagues but they most likely won’t overtake Kupp or Woods.
Minnesota
Minnesota wants to win on the back of Dalvin Cook, not great for any rookie receiver. Minnesota also has an incredible duo in Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, not great for a rookie receiver. Overall, you probably won’t pay much attention to a rookie here. I would equate it to a situation similar to the Rams or Atlanta. Except for the fact that they want to run a bit more than the other two teams.
Pittsburgh
Losing JuJu Smith-Schuster absolutely opens up a spot for a receiver but the Steelers already have a plethora of talent in their wide receiver room. Any rookie will have a steep hill to climb in order to usurp Claypool, Johnson and Washington. It is still a very powerful passing offense, just won’t be much value for a rookie receiver.
San Francisco
If you aren’t a YAC master then Kyle Shannahan doesn’t want you at receiver. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk have proven to be the prototypical receivers in a Shanahan offense. With Kittle, Samuel (when healthy) and Aiyuk holding it down as the primary pass-catcher there isn’t much value for a rookie here. Especially with a team that wants to run the ball and run it well. Not to mention, their current situation at quarterback. With whispers of Deshaun Watson this could absolutely change but at the moment the only value is in a depth piece when/if someone gets hurt.
Seattle
D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the dudes there and they won’t be going anywhere. A rookie receiver will be a WR3 or strictly depth piece. There are whispers we may not see Russ cook in Seattle much longer but I believe he will be back in 2021.
Tampa Bay
Reports are saying that the Buccaneers plan to bring back Chris Godwin, either in a new contract or under the Franchise Tag. However, that isn’t a done deal yet so he is a free agent until proven otherwise. With that being said, Mike Evans is still there; that’s your WR1. They drafted Tyler Johnson last year and they seem to really like him as a receiver and we all saw what Scotty Miller can do. By no means am I saying a rookie cannot overtake those two receivers, I am just saying the opening isn’t as clear as in other places.
Door Is Ajar
(There is a chance for a rookie to take over the number 2 spot)
Arizona
Any rookie selected by the Cardinals will need to understand he is not the #1 receiver and there is little to no chance they take over that spot. WR1 belongs to Nuk. Christian Kirk is currently the number 2 and will most likely stay there. We will continue to wonder if Fitz is going to retire but at this moment he is currently set up to play. Kyler Murray has shown so sparks at times but makes much of his plays with his legs. With Kingsbury at the helm this offense was in the middle of the pack in passing attempts and yards. Any rookie here is depth or a dynasty flier. Not much value at the moment.
Buffalo
Steffon Diggs is coming back after a DOMINANT 2020 season. He is the number one and nobody will take that. Buffalo is also bringing back their slot master, Cole Beasley. That basically leaves the door open for the second outside receiver. As it stands, that would be John Brown. If good old Smoke can stay healthy he will most likely retain that spot. If not, it could turn to a rookie, Gabriel Davis or Isaiah McKenzie. The Bills throw for a lot of yards so that position absolutely has value, especially with Brian Daboll returning to call the plays.
Green Bay
This is a very similar situation to Arizona. Except, better. Aaron Rodgers is a much better quarterback and this is a much better offense. The number one receiver is still there and he won’t be losing that spot. But the number two spot is the one that seems to be up for grabs. MVS and Lazard showed sparks but it seems the Packers could be wanting more. They are talked about every year getting a receiver in the draft, this could be a very good landing spot for a rookie.
Indianapolis
Michael Pittman is pegged to take over the number one receiver role. T.Y. Hilton is declining and a current free agent and the Parris Campbell hype has not entirely gone away. The quarterback situation is a question mark to say the least and this is a team that plays great defense and runs the ball. By no means is this a spot you’re begging a top receiver lands at but this is most definitely a landing spot where there could be competition in that receiver room.
Jacksonville
This rookie would most assuredly be given the chance to join the league with a generational talent; Trevor Lawerence. Of course, that is most likely a good thing. However, nothing is certain in this league. A rookie would most likely be lined up on the other side of the field as D.J. Chark with Lavishka Shenault as the do it all chess piece for Urban Meyer and company. Offensive Coordinator, Darrell Bevell, isn’t necessarily known for his high-powered passing offense.
Los Angeles (A)
I am still holding out hope for the ever elusive Mike Williams breakout. We saw glimpses last year but I wouldn’t say he has “arrived” just yet. The hope is with a full offseason with Herbert he would be able to breakout in 2021. The reason I am talking about Williams so much (aside from my obvious love for him) is because if he fails to get his footing this season that number 2 receiver role is wide open. Jalen Guyton showed some chops as a deep threat but not much else. This is a spot that is either holding down that number two receiver role or a depth piece. A lot of question marks, but you want a guy who is getting passes thrown from Justin Herbert.
Miami
The Dolphins need another trustworthy receiver. After bursting onto the scene at the end of 2019 Preston Williams wasn’t able to build off of it in 2020. A rookie receiver would most assuredly slot into that number two spot and could even overtake Devante Parker as the WR1. The only worry here is offensive play calling and Quarterback play. If a move is made by the Dolphins and they roll into 2021 with a new man under center this could absolutely change.
New Orleans
The situation in New Orleans is a little murky. Jameis is probably the better passer but they seem to like Taysom more. I would say it is most likely they try to win with dominant defense and Alvin Kamara. Any rookie receiver will either compete with Emmanuel Sanders for the number 2 spot or compete with Tre’Quan Smith for the three spot. Either way, there isn’t much of a path for a receiver to overtake the infamous “Slant Boy” as the clear WR1.
Tennessee
There are two departures that stick out most for this position; Corey Davis and Arthur Smith. Corey Davis leaving is a positive for any rookie receiver joining the Titans next season. Arthur Smith leaving is a negative in the fact that we now have some uncertainty on this Titan’s offense. Of course, they will still shove it down your throat with Derrick Henry. They also have a STUD in A.J. Brown, he isn’t going anywhere. But, the only time Todd Downing was an offensive coordinator was in 2017 with the Raiders. Their offense was in the middle of the pack, their passing game especially. The only thing you cannot question with the Titans is their need to fill in that WR2 with Davis out the door. The receiver opposite A.J. Brown will most likely be a rookie’s to lose. (Also wouldn’t be shocked to see a free agent here).
Washington
Who is going to be slinging the rock here? Taylor Heinicke looked tremendous in the playoffs and just got himself an extension. Is he for real or was it a simple case of catching lightning in a bottle? The somehow not unanimous Comeback Player of the Year, Alex Smith, has been an incredible story. But, his play has been average at best. The Football Team is set with their WR1 in Scary Terry. They are in need of a counterpart for him. Either from someone currently on the roster or a rookie. The team attempted the 9th most passes in the league. But, had the 25th most passing yards, not necessarily a recipe for success. A rookie could absolutely come in and take on a lot of targets.
Door Is Wide Open
(There is a clear path for a rookie to come in and takeover the #1 role)
Baltimore
Here’s the deal with the Ravens, they need another pass-catching option. Hollywood Brown has shown he can be a solid receiver but he hasn’t proven to be a dominant #1 receiver. The only problem is, the Ravens don’t throw the football. I’m talking about the least attempts in the league, bad. Greg Roman is still there so you know the running backs (and Lamar) will get theirs. There is talent in this wide receiver room, but there will most likely be a pretty open competition for anyone, rookies included, to secure that number one spot.
Chicago
What the Bears currently may lack in quarterback play, they make up with opportunity. A rookie receiver has a true shot to start as the number one receiver in Chicago. They will need to compete with Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller. Both are good receivers, not surefire WR1s by the season opener, though. The Bears will have Bill Lazor calling plays again and regardless of who is behind center this is a real opportunity for a rookie to be the number one receiving option. The Bears were eighth in pass attempts a season ago, so that number two spot would still hold a lot of value.
Detroit
We say it in football all the time, opportunity is king. The Lions are set up to be a wonderful landing spot for a rookie wide receiver. Of course, that statement relies solely on the opportunity that receiver will be given. The offense should be fine but with Stafford out and Gollday, Amendola and Marvin Jones hitting free agency there really isn’t much left to this offense. A rookie receiver is sure to garner a lot of targets.
Houston
At this moment in time Deshaun Watson is the starting quarterback for the Texans. Due to that reason and that reason alone this is an offense you want to be a part of as a receiver. Will Fuller is a free agent which means Brandin Cooks is returning as the team’s number one receiver with Keke Coutee behind him. In all reality, this is a situation that a rookie could very well step up into a number one role. Obviously the reality is, they have no picks right now and in order to get picks they’ll have to trade Watson. If ,and that if is about as big as the hole the Texans have dug, Watson plays quarterback for the Houston Texans in 2021 a rookie receiver would be in a good situation to produce.
Las Vegas
It was clear last year that the Raiders are not necessarily a force to be reckoned with as a passing attack. Darren Waller is a stud and there’s no denying that. But after that… Ruggs was pretty meh. Nelson Agholar was their leading receiver (behind Waller) and there’s a baby saving hero up in Philly who would laugh at that start.Tyrell Wiliams should be returning but isn’t that true number 1 they need in this offense. Neither is Hunter Renfrow. I think a new receiver in Las Vegas will compete with Waller for targets and help open up speedster, Ruggs.
New England
I want to say give me any rookie that walks into this locker room. However, it remains to be seen if they can truly identify receiver talent. Along with the fact that they really don’t have a quarterback at the moment makes this landing spot a tad unsettling. However, any rookie drafted here, especially an early one, will be given every opportunity to be the WR1.
New York (N)
I think this is an underrated landing spot for a rookie receiver. Since the departure of Odell Beckham Jr. the Giants have been searching for someone to take that spot over. Don’t get me wrong, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton had nice seasons last year but neither has truly stepped up as that WR1. If a rookie is taken early enough it could be in hopes of finding that WR1.
New York (A)
A rookie receiver is coming in to compete with Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims. Both of which are at very different points of their career. I like Mims as a receiver and believe a rookie the Jets draft will be to play opposite of Mims. That wouldn’t be a bad setup at all. The only cause for concern would be who is playing quarterback and what we think of Matt LaFleur as a play caller. If LaFleur is anything like his brother and Sam Darnold takes a step forward this could be a very good offense, those are two very big if’s though.
Philadelphia
It is a very tough question of whether or not you want Wentz at quarterback or Hurts. Both have shown flashes of greatness and both have struggled. Regardless of who is throwing the ball, the Eagles need help at receiver badly. Reagor didn’t have the rookie season many other rookies did and surely Philadelphia won’t want to make that mistake again. A rookie receiver here could most definitely secure the WR1 by week 1.