“A team is only as good as their coach”. A phrase that is used across all of sports and one that proves to be correct week in and week out in the NFL. A phrase that people look to when watching an exceptionally talented team repeatedly fail to close games out in the fourth quarter. When a running back who excels in the passing game is consistently assigned run after run up the middle, to no avail. To shed light on a rather recent event, when your team runs cover zero with a 4-point lead and 14 seconds left in the game. The future Hall-of Famers and recurring All-Pros on any team are important. But they mean nothing if a bad coach gets in their way. Countless times a star player has had seasons or even a career wasted due to ineptitude from an organization or coaching staff. So much so you begin to wonder, how teams come across great coaches. One answer, coaching trees. Many in the football realm have become enamored with coaching trees. Coaches like the great Bill Walsh and Sid Gillman. To the more recent names (still great) of Bill Belichick and Andy Reid. These coaches and more are talked about ad nauseum. Which begs the question, Which current NFL coaching is the best one for teams to vulture assistants from. Even more, is there a current coach that could be sprouting their own tree or on the verge of sprouting one.
Two of the main coaching trees that get discussed are Andy Reid’s and Bill Belichick’s. However, most would say pretty definitively Reid’s tree has been most successful. His tree, of course, stems from the great Mike Holmgren. Belichick, on the other hand, stems from Bill Parcells. Reid has former disciples, John Harbaugh, Sean Mcdermott, Ron Rivera and Doug Pederson currently leading NFL teams. Belichick currently has Mike Vrabel, Brian Flores, Joe Judge and Alabama’s Nick Saban at the helm of their respective teams. The league’s coaching carousel is littered with former assistants of these two coaches. The current offensive coordinators for both men are in the head coaching discussion this year. Eric Bieniemy from Kansas City and Josh McDaniels (yes, again) from New England. They could, however, be replacing other coaches from the same coaching tree. Matt Patricia and Bill O’Brien are two of the latest former Belichick coaches who didn’t quite pan out on their own. Coaches like Matt Nagy and Doug Pederson could also be on their way out. Although, I see Nagy as a more deserving candidate to get the axe. With the league’s emphasis on win and win fast it is imperative front offices are diligent in their coaching searches in order to find the next great coach and not a coach they will need to move on from after three years. So, I have decided to dive into coaches current coaches who have stemmed from a coaching tree in search of a commonality of those who have succeeded and those who have failed.
I’ll first start with the current NFL coaches who have won a Super Bowl as a head coach.
The Winners (Team):
Andy Reid (Chiefs)
Bill Belichick (Patriots)
Mike McCarthy (Packers)
Jon Gruden (Buccaneers)
Doug Pederson (Eagles)
John Harbaugh (Ravens)
Sean Payton (Saints)
Pete Carroll (Seahawks)
Mike Tomlin (Steelers)
Of this list there are two coaches who are not currently with the team they won their Super Bowl with. Jon Gruden is now with the Raiders and Mike McCarthy is now with the Cowboys (albeit after this year who knows how much longer). I also want to look at current coaches who have made their way to a Super Bowl only to leave without a win. Although the main goal is to win the Super Bowl it is still an achievement to make it to the final game and is a telling sign of a good coach (Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin and Pete Carrol have all lost a Super Bowl).
Not Over The Hump...yet (team):
Kyle Shannahan (49ers)
Sean McVay (Rams)
Ron Rivera (Panthers)
This is a much shorter list and Ron Rivera isn’t even the coach for the Panthers anymore. Although we have seen what he has done with Washington in year one. Finally, I would like to see what coaches have made the playoffs as a coach of their current team and how many years they have been the head coach. The number of years coaching will help determine a couple things. For starters it will help separate the coaches who just aren’t there yet and the ones who are habitual playoff losers. It will also help separate the coaches who have been to the playoffs less than the years they have coached. None of these coaches have won or made it to the Super Bowl as a head coach.
Gave The Team a Chance (Appearances/Years Coaching):
Sean McDermott (3 Visits / 4 Years)
Matt Nagy (2 Visits / 3 Years)
Matt LaFleur (2 Visits / 2 Years)
Frank Reich (2 Visits / 3 Years)
Doug Marrone (1 Visit / 4 Years) not counting interim year
Anthony Lynn (1 Visit / 4 Years)
Mike Zimmer (3 Visits / 7 Years)
Bruce Arians (1 Visit / 1 Year)...this is with only the Buccaneers
Mike Vrabel (2 Visits / 2 Years)
To me, the definition of success in the NFL runs in the form of a hierarchy in an order of overall importance. As a front office you should be ranking your current head or a possible future head coach on this list in this order.
Super Bowl Championships
Super Bowl Appearances
3a.Playoff Consistency
3b. Playoff Wins
I have playoff consistency and playoff wins groups together as I see them as equally important while a consistency to get there is more important and more conducive to finding the better head coach (in most cases). The example that comes to mind when making this point is the comparison of Sean McDermott and Doug Marrone. McDermott has been to the playoffs more consistently (just more in general) but has fewer wins. I don’t think anyone who watches the NFL is going to argue that Marrone is the better coach although he has more playoff wins from that lone magical run in 2017.
So, of all the coaches listed above, those who have won Super Bowls, been to the Super Bowl and/or been to the playoffs, who are the ones we could see out the door this offseason? The two obvious choices that would be almost unanimous would be Doug Marrone and Anthony Lynn. Both coaches are very well liked around the league and are sure to land an assistant job elsewhere, their front offices will probably just be more prone to start anew. Following them are some tougher names that truly could go either way but definitely will be talks around the league. Doug Pederson, Mike McCarthy, Matt Nagy, Mike Zimmer and Bruce Arians. I think the Super Bowl saves Pederson for at least one more year to figure out the Quarterback dilemma he has on his hands. With Arians leading the Buccaneers to their first playoff appearance in 13 years I believe he will also be safe. His case is a tough one as most of the rumblings have come from rumored issues between him and Brady. If the Bears make the playoffs Nagy is most assuredly safe and I would assume will still stay into next year although I have no clue where they go at quarterback. I would assume Zimmer stays although his ability to get to the playoffs has to cause at least some concern. As for Mike McCarthy, it seems to be a true toss-up. He is in year one, he lost his starting quarterback and had a depleted line (we all saw the defense). However, Jerry Jones being Jerry Jones he wants to win and if he is unhappy with the way the team was run this year I would not at all be surprised if he wants a new man in charge. Personally I wasn’t a fan of the hire in the first place, but they have played well down the stretch and could still potentially make the playoffs.
Now, of the coaches that will remain on their respective teams this year and have been included in one of the three lists above, who are the coaches who have come from a predominant coaching tree.
Fruit From The Coaching Tree (Coaching Tree):
John Harbaugh (Reid)
Sean McDermott (Reid)
Matt Nagy (Reid)
Mike McCarthy (Schottenheimmer)
Andy Reid (Holmgren)
Jon Gruden (Holmgren)
Mike Zimmer (Parcells)
Bill Belichick (Parcells)
Sean Payton (Parcells)
Doug Pederson (Reid)
Bruce Arians (Schottenheimmer)
Mike Vrabel (Belichick)
Ron Rivera (Reid)
Some coaches here were left off for various reasons. Matt LaFluer, Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay would all be products of a Mike Shanahan coaching tree and were not included as he is not known predominantly for his coaching tree….although it seems a case could be made. Mike Tomlin and Pete Carroll are both in similar situations as they come from coaches not known for having an extensive coaching tree (Jon Gruden and Bud Grant respectively). Frank Reich coached under Doug Pedersen but never under Andy Reid, so I didn’t include him even though he would be considered under Reid’s tree. Then there are Belichick products Brian Flores and Joe Judge, neither have made a playoff appearance so I left them off the list.
Using this list to find the best coaching tree to poach from it may be easiest to start with the ones we won’t want to take from. To start we will go with Schottenheimmer. As great of a coach and mentor as he was, the two current coaches from his tree were both listed above as possible coaches looking for new jobs in the near future. The NFL is a fluid and evolving league and if the coaches from his tree are unable to adapt to those changes they may not be long for the league. The next two trees are very similar. Mike Holmgren and Bill Parcells were great coaches, some of the best of all time. It appears they were also great mentors as well. The current coaches in the league who were a part of their coaching tree are now well on their way of developing a coaching tree of their own. So, needless to say, NFL front offices will now be looking at their tree in the form of a coaching tree created by one of their disciples. The only two left, who are current NFL coaches are Bill Belichick and Andy Reid. However, with the constant talk and comparisons between the two’s trees this comparison is fairly lopsided. Of all the current NFL coaches who have at the minimum made the playoffs five of them have come from the Andy Reid coaching tree. Six if you are someone who includes Frank Reich. There is only one who has come from the Bill Belichick coaching tree, Mike Vrabel. Vrabel is only in his second year as the Tennessee Titans coach. Also, as far as longevity goes, Harbaugh and Rivera have both been coaches in the NFL for quite some time. If we want to take it a step further, and mention him again, Doug Pedersen has extended Reids tree by having one of his assistants become a head coach without them coaching under Reid. Pending the future of Joe Judge in New York and Brian Flores in Miami, front offices may need to take a step back before jumping to hire a coach that is a part of the Bill Belichick coaching tree. This is becoming more and more true as Reid’s already extensive tree could be getting larger with coaches like Don Martindale (Ravens) and Brian Daboll (Bills) getting a lot of buzz around the league as possible hires for NFL teams. Daboll is an interesting case as he coached under both Bill Belichick and Andy Reid. He would fall under both trees although many connect him to Reid. A current assistant under Reid is also getting a lot of hype around the league and that is his offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy. If an NFL team is looking to pick from a coaching tree, Reid’s is the one they should look to.
Now, there may be a coaching tree that needs to have its assistants evaluated before that of the Belichick coaching tree. That tree is the Shanahan tree. That is Mike Shanahan, for now. There are currently four NFL head coaches that are a part of the Mike Shanahan coaching tree. Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur and Anthony Lynn. We discussed Anthony Lynn and his likelihood to be fired. However, as it stands Mike Shanahan has more current coaches in the NFL from his coaching tree than BIll Belichick does. He also has more assistants who have won a Super Bowl (Gary Kubiak) and more assistants who have been to a Super Bowl (Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay). In fact, the past three Super Bowls have been dominated by three coaching trees. Andy Reid’s, Bill Belichick’s and Mike Shanahan’s. The only difference is, the past two champions have been the HEAD of the coaching tree and the two coaches who have last have been a PART of the coaching tree. Needless to say coaches may need to look at the Shanahan tree as well. Some front offices have done this while various coaches from the Rams, 49ers and Packers have been discussed as potential hires. Robert Saleh was one talked about last year and Zac Taylor was one who was hired to Cincinnati. Now, it seems with the hire of Zac Taylor many in the league want to hire under the McVay coaching tree. But, we must remember that McVay and LaFleur BOTH coached under Kyle Shanahan while he was the offensive coordinator in Washington. Although it was his father who was the head coach at the time it may be Kyle Shanahan is the coach the league needs to look at when looking for assistants to hire. LaFluer was even with Kyle Shanahan during his stint as the Falcon’s offensive coordinator. During Taylor’s lone season as an offensive coordinator in Miami their offense was towards the bottom in almost every category. Each of McVay, Shanahan and LaFleur found success as offensive coordinators in the NFL before becoming head coaches. The three head coaches were also offensive coordinators for at least two full seasons as offensive coordinators. A name that should absolutely be on the radar of NFL coaches around the league is Mike McDaniel. He is the current run game coordinator in San Francisco under Kyle Shanahan. He was on that Washington staff under Mike Shanahan from 2011-2013 and then worked as a part of Kyle Shanahan’s offense in Atlanta. He is young (just what every team in the league seems to want right now) and has been successful in both Atlanta and San Francisco. My one hope is that he goes the route of Matt LaFleur rather than Zac Taylor and is first given an offensive coordinator job before a head coaching job.
I would look for Kyle Shanahan to slowly begin sprouting a coaching tree of his own. Teams will continue to look in the direction of the Mike Shanahan tree as the three men continue to excel in their current roles. I believe the next big tree is a Shanahan tree rather than the McVay tree many believed it would be in the previous years.
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